EP Elections - Difference between both major parties ranges from 24,000 to 27,000 votes

The two major political surveys published this morning indicate that the Labour Party is currently ahead of the Nationalist Party by anything between 24,000 and 27,000 votes on a turnout of around 70%. It is expected that around 3% will be invalid votes for a total turnout of 67%. Independent candidates are expected to poll around 8-9% of the vote with Arnold Cassola at about 4% according to a poll by Malta Today. 

According to pollster Vincent Marmara, the gap between both major parties is 10.8% with the PL at 50.9% and the PN at 40.1%. Independents garner around 9% of the vote. 

The increased gap is the result of a decrease in support for the PN, which sheds one percentage point over the last survey. Support for the PL has remained stable at 50.7% with the PN registering 41.4%. Support for third parties and independent candidates has increased by one point and is now at 7.9% according to Malta Today.

The Malta Today survey confirms previous trends showing that the PN has narrowed the gap with Labour when compared to election results of the past 15 years that all resulted in a super-majority for Labour of over 35,000 votes. In fact, in the last MEP Elections, the PL had a majority of around 43,000 votes on a similar voting number of votes indicating that the PN has managed to cut the gap substantially. 

However, the survey does not show any significant shift from the PL to the PN and most of the PL’s losses are the result of a higher abstention rate among its voters. The survey shows the PL losing 2.8% of its 2022 general election voters to the PN, and the PN losing 1.3% of its 2022 voters to the PL.

On the other hand, while the PN loses 15.5% of its 2022 general election voters to abstention, the PL loses 18.8% of its voters. The survey also suggests that at this juncture the PN is losing more to third parties than the PL. While only 2.6% of PL voters in 2022 opt for a third party, the percentage increases to 4.7% among PN voters. Overall, while the PN retains 78.5% of its 2022 voters, the PL is retaining 75.9%.

A regional story: Labour leads in the South by wide margins whilst the Pn retakes Gozo

For the first time in the campaign, the MT survey shows the PN enjoying a small 2.3-point lead in Gozo where Labour enjoyed a 5.9-point lead in the last survey.

The PN is also leading by 2.6 points in the Northern region which includes localities like Mellieha, St Paul’s Bay, and Mosta, and by a more substantial 9.6 points in the North Harbour region which includes Sliema, Birkirkara, and Msida.

But while the PN has made small inroads in northern and central Malta, the PL is leading by a very wide margin of 27 points in the South East, which includes localities like Marsaskala and Zejtun, and a staggering 33.1 points in the South Harbour, which includes the PL’s Cottonera strongholds. If Labour manages to mobilise its voters in these regions it should win a comfortable majority. 

But in the Western region the two main parties are practically neck to neck as they were in previous surveys.

Support for third parties also peaks at 10.6% in this region which includes Attard and Zebbug.

Roberta Metsola way ahead as candidates' first preference

Roberta Metsola remains in pole position with 41.3% of voters who have made up their mind saying they will give her their first preference.

Two days before Malta heads to the polls to elect six MEPs, Labour’s front-runner Alex Agius Saliba secures 29.9% of those who have decided who to give their number 1 vote.

The other four front runners in the survey are PL candidate Daniel Attard (4.2%), PN candidate Peter Agius (3.9%), independent candidate Arnold Cassola (3.9%), and Labour candidate Steve Ellul (3.6%).