Will the gap (id-distakk) evaporate in the Local Council's elections?

Last Saturday, 8^th June 2024, all votes of the Maltese small parties together with all independent candidates amounted to 32,882 votes or 13% of the valid votes cast on the first count.

Many Maltese and Gozitans wonder which of the large political parties was affected the most by this in the local elections held in the same day. This curiosity is important because the independents and small parties are mostly lacking in local council elections.

The answer is not clear because Malta uses a rather complicated system that gives to voters the freedom to choose not just the political party, but also the candidate and further to this, preferences among candidates. We do this because we have the Single Transferable Vote system and that is also used in the Republic of Ireland.

Those who like me always voted know that after writing the number one, big and beautiful on your preferred candidate on the ballot paper, you can either continue until the end of your party's list or switch to other parties. Of course, you must not repeat the number one as that would invalidate the vote. Yet unlike Ireland, cross-party voting is usually frowned in Malta and many wrongly think that this invalidates the vote. 

We can find out from the official results of the Electoral Commission how many votes the small parties and independents won in the successive counts and their successive distribution after elimination. I won't delve into the details of every count because it takes too long. Before Arnold Cassola was eliminated, (he was the last of the independents to be eliminated), his share of the votes had increased considerably. Before him, the votes of other independents were transferred mostly to other independents candidates or else were non-transferable. 

There are many cross-party votes that do seem weird. When the surplus votes of Roberta Metsola were distributed, the majority obviously went to the Nationalist Party, but the independents and small parties did take a considerable share  (4074), notably, Arnold Cassola. So far so good but it comes as a shock that Norman Lowell, the sworn enemy of Madame Presidente received 172 votes precisely from her!  Types, like Mina Tolu and Metsola, seem like two peas in a pod on many issues - except for the thorny issue of the Israeli invasion of Gaza - but the the far-right candidate inherits more votes than her/him/them.

Another odd transfer of votes happened when Matthias Iannis Portelli of the pro-abortion VOLT party was eliminated. ABBA’s Tania Gauci Fiorini, a devout Evangelical who believes in the rapture got six votes from a pro-choice diehard. Lastly, after Sandra Gauci’s elimination, Norman Lowell took 243 from her. Indeed, some Maltese voters seem to have split personalities and they show it on the ballot papers. Why not if they are free to do it?

Back to the curiosity of what choice the 32 thousand strong voters might have made in the Local Elections since in most towns, only Nationalist or Labour candidates are present on ballot papers.  Who did they choose and how will this affect the gap - id-distakk?

Perhaps this is an impossible question to answer before this Friday and only someone with the intuition of Saint Pio of Pietralcina, who could read the hearts of men, could arrive at a conclusion. What happened at count number 34 when Arnold Cassola's 22,941 votes were distributed can be indicative. Cassola’s first count tally was 12 thousand plus and thus he did inherit quite a lot. When eliminated, Labour took 2019 votes, PN received 7,693 and a considerable number (13,229) ended non-transferable. It seems that for every vote Labour received, the Nationalists took nearly five. 

Some are judging from this that the fabulous distakk, can actually be less than 8000 votes, with a possibility of the PN surpassing Labour in the local council elections. 

I think that we should dismiss the conclusion of Andre Callus of Graffiti, who said that the MEP election was a win for those who are neither PN nor PL. Many like Callus are saying that the cancellation or the reversal of the gap - id-distakk - is irrelevant. They are adding 32,882 with the invalid votes, the absentees and those who didn't collect their voting documents. This imaginary super majority defeated the Leviathan called PNPL. Donald Trump’s gaffes seem more intelligent than this reasoning which is strikingly reminiscent of someone who once said he had won a referendum by counting the dead. Praising absenteeism is NEVER good for a democracy.  Gaps do count.