Pn leads PL by 12,000 in first survey since MEP Elections in June

THE Nationalist Party has  emerged ahead of the Labour  Party with a lead of 11,699  votes in the first MaltaToday survey after the June MEP elections. The survey puts support for  the PN at 48.2% and the PL  at 43.8% with ADPD securing 4.5% and other parties or inedependents 3.5%.

In June, the PL won a relative majority in the European election, beating the PN with a slim 8,500-vote margin. This means that the PN has gained a staggering 20,000 votes since June whilst the PL has remained in the same waters.

Four months later, the shift towards the PN is attributable to a higher abstention  rate among Labour voters and the Opposition’s small gains among PL voters and non-voters.

The survey results show that if a general election were to be held now, the turnout would be 75.7%, which would be the lowest in any general election held since 1950.

What is sure, however, is that the PN has substantially narrowed or wiped out Labour’s 39,000-vote advantage in the 2022 general election. The survey was conducted in the period when the PL was electing its two deputy leaders and other members of the administration and executive, following a summer of internal turbulence. Compared to the 2022 general election, the survey suggests that the PL has lost a staggering 45,035 votes, which are now mostly parked in the non-voters camp.

However, the PN has only gained 6,138 votes while non-voters have increased by 26,236. A comparison with vote tallies from the June MEP election shows the PL practically retaining the same number of votes. In contrast, the PN gains 20,000 votes, mostly thanks to a higher turnout among its 2022 voters, including some who missed the MEP election but would vote for the PN in a general election. The survey also suggests that support for third parties in a forthcoming general election would rise to 8%, split between 4.5%, who would vote for ADPD and 3.5% for other parties.

PN retains more votes

One major reason for the PN’s lead is its higher retention rate of 2022 general election voters. While the PL barely retains 69% of its former voters, the PN retains 81% of its 2022 voters. Moreover, while Labour retains 78% of its MEP election voters, the PN retains 80%. Significantly, while the PN loses 12.5% of its 2022 voters and 15% of its MEP election voters to abstention, PL losses to the non-voting camp increase to 22% among its 2022 voters and to 17% among its MEP election voters. Moreover, Labour’s losses to abstention are topped up by smaller losses to the PN. While the PN loses only 2% of its 2022 voters to Labour, it gains 6% of Labour voters from the same general election.

Furthermore, Labour loses 3% of its MEP election voters to the PN, while the PL gains only 1% of PN voters. The PN also makes greater inroads than Labour among non-voters in the 2022 general election, 26% of whom will now vote PN compared to just 6% who will vote Labour. And while only 15% of non-voters in last June’s MEP elections will now vote PL, 20% will vote PN. The survey also shows that the PN is making greater inroads among third-party voters in recent MEP elections. While only 13% of these voters will vote Labour now, 26% will vote PN. However, a substantial 38% of these voters will still vote for a third party in a forthcoming general election. The survey also shows that ADPD, which barely scraped the 1% mark in MEP elections, is now taking a substantial chunk of the third-party vote (22%) in these elections. This suggests the Greens have managed to survive the latest setback and are polling at nearly 4.5%, possibly in their role as Malta’s default third party.

PN leads in four out of six regions

The survey shows that the PN has taken the lead in the Northern, North Harbour, Western, and Gozo regions, while the PL still leads by a wide margin in the South-eastern region and by a lower margin in the South Harbour. The PN’s support peaks in the Northern and North Harbour regions, where the party commands a relative majority of 45% of the total number of voters, including non-voters. The party also leads in Gozo (41%) and the Western region (38%). In Gozo, the only region corresponding to an electoral district, the PN is leading Labour by nine points. This is particularly significant in view of Labour gains in this district in the last three general elections.

However, the survey finds that support for Labour remains solid in the South-eastern region, where the party commands an absolute majority of 53% and has a 33-point lead over the PN, which barely scrapes the 20% mark in this district. Labour’s lead decreases to 11 points in the South Harbour region, which includes Labour’s Cottonera strongholds and nearby towns