Voting has commenced in one of France’s most significant elections in recent memory, with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) and its allies on the verge of becoming the dominant force in the national assembly. The polls opened at 8am local time on Sunday after a mandatory rest day free of political activities. Projections are expected once polling stations in major cities close at 8pm.
Recent surveys have shown a decline in the predicted number of RN deputies due to strategic withdrawals by rival candidates to prevent vote splitting in three-way run-offs. The “republican front” aims to prevent the anti-immigration, Eurosceptic party from securing an outright majority of 289 seats. The latest Ipsos poll estimates the RN and its allies will win between 175 and 205 seats in the 577-seat parliament, significantly increasing their representation from 88 seats in the outgoing assembly.
President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition faces a potential reduction to a maximum of 148 seats. Meanwhile, the New Popular Front (NFP), a left-wing alliance led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Unbowed France (LFI), is projected to secure between 145 and 175 seats, likely making it the second-largest parliamentary group.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has expressed concerns about a majority dominated by the far-right, warning of catastrophic consequences. Attal has committed to maintaining a caretaker role while Macron and his advisers consider their options, which could include forming a broad coalition excluding the far-right and far-left or establishing a technocratic government.
Marine Le Pen has called on voters to avoid political gridlock by granting the RN an absolute majority, aiming to install her 28-year-old deputy, Jordan Bardella, as prime minister. Le Pen criticized the republican front for undermining the will of the people and protecting the political elite. Bardella stated he would only assume the prime minister role if the RN achieves an outright majority.
The RN has moderated some of its positions but continues to advocate for stringent immigration policies, restrictions on dual nationals in state jobs, and a “national preference” for certain welfare benefits. Public dissatisfaction with Macron’s pro-business reforms, which are perceived as neglecting concerns about the cost of living and public services, has bolstered the RN’s support.
The election campaign has been marked by escalating tensions and incidents of violence, with over 50 candidates and campaign workers assaulted, some requiring hospitalization. Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin reported more than 30 arrests and condemned the violent climate against political activities.
As France prepares to host the summer Olympics, around 30,000 police officers, including 5,000 in Paris, are deployed to prevent potential unrest following the election. Street protests near the parliament have been banned to maintain order.
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