In the Netherlands, exit polls from the first day of the European elections indicate that a progressive alliance is narrowly ahead of far-right rivals. This has prompted Left and Green parties to assert that nationalist forces can be defeated.
Dutch voters were the first to cast their ballots in the four-day election across the 27 EU member states, where 720 representatives will be elected to the European Parliament.
Projections suggest that hard-right and far-right parties will achieve their best-ever results. However, their influence may be limited as they are expected to be split among different groups and non-aligned members.
An exit poll from the Dutch broadcaster NOS on Thursday showed the Green-Left alliance poised to win eight seats, while Geert Wilders’ far-right Freedom Party (PVV) is expected to secure seven seats. The margin of error suggests a potential tie.
Both factions claimed victory. Bas Eickhout, a leading Green MEP candidate, remarked, "The narrative of the rise of the far right has been beaten. This is a message for the rest of Europe: go out and vote!" Wilders expressed pride in his party’s recent performance, citing its success in national elections and its anticipated strong showing in the European vote.
Following the Netherlands, voters in Ireland and the Czech Republic will vote on Friday. Latvia, Malta, Slovakia, and Italy will follow on Saturday, with voting continuing in Italy on Sunday.
Most EU citizens, including those in major countries like France, Germany, Spain, and Poland, will vote on Sunday. Preliminary results are expected early Monday.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, campaigning for re-election with the centre-right European People’s Party, urged voters to support "a strong Europe ... that can defend itself." Although von der Leyen is the frontrunner, there is significant uncertainty about her securing a majority in the new parliament.
A senior EU diplomat estimated von der Leyen's chances of reappointment by EU leaders at 80%-85%, with a 60%-65% likelihood of parliamentary approval. She needs at least 361 votes out of 720 MEPs.
The European Parliament will be instrumental in implementing the Green Deal, Europe’s strategy to address the climate crisis. Voter turnout, which reached a 25-year high of 50.7% in 2019, will be closely monitored.
Catherine De Vries, a political science professor at Bocconi University, predicts slightly higher turnout due to increased stakes in European issues, driven by both support and dissatisfaction with EU decisions.
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