Poll reveals historically low support for the big two, with smaller parties gaining five points
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer indicates that the Conservative and Labour parties are headed for their lowest combined vote share since World War II, as voters shift away from the main parties.
Current Polling and Shifts
With less than three weeks until polling day and all parties having unveiled their election manifestos, Labour holds a 17-point lead over the Tories. However, the smaller parties, including Reform and the Liberal Democrats, have each gained two points.
Trend Reversal
This marks a significant reversal from the last election, where the main parties managed to consolidate support by reducing backing for smaller competitors. According to Opinium, support for smaller parties dropped by 10 points between the first and last poll of the 2019 campaign. Currently, the vote share for smaller parties is up by five points.
Expert Analysis
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, noted, “Voters are turning away from the two major parties in a huge break with the trend seen in the 2019 general election campaign, when the smaller parties’ votes were squeezed. The biggest surprise is that both major parties are being hit, with Labour and the Conservatives down to their lowest share of the vote since Liz Truss was in office.”
Dylan Difford, an elections researcher, found that based on current polling, the main parties are on track for their lowest vote share since 1945. He highlighted that the elections following Brexit might have been an anomaly, masking a longer-term decline in support for the two major parties.
Growing Multi-Partyism
Difford stated, “After the Brexit polarisation seen in the last two elections allowed the smaller parties to get ‘squeezed’, this represents a return to the pre-2016 trend of growing multi-partyism among British voters. Regardless of a belief that first past the post will always push voters back to the big two, the increasing anger, frustration, and distrust voters feel towards mainstream politics is fueling this fragmentation across western democracies – and Britain is simply not immune.”
Approval Ratings
The Opinium poll also showed a significant decline in Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings, with a net rating of -40, as only 20% of respondents approved of his performance while 60% disapproved. Keir Starmer's ratings also declined, albeit less severely, to an overall -3 rating.### Tories and Labour on Course for Lowest Share of the Vote Since 1945
Poll reveals historically low support for the big two, with smaller parties gaining five points
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer indicates that the Conservative and Labour parties are headed for their lowest combined vote share since World War II, as voters shift away from the main parties.
Current Polling and Shifts
With less than three weeks until polling day and all parties having unveiled their election manifestos, Labour holds a 17-point lead over the Tories. However, the smaller parties, including Reform and the Liberal Democrats, have each gained two points.
Trend Reversal
This marks a significant reversal from the last election, where the main parties managed to consolidate support by reducing backing for smaller competitors. According to Opinium, support for smaller parties dropped by 10 points between the first and last poll of the 2019 campaign. Currently, the vote share for smaller parties is up by five points.
Expert Analysis
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, noted, “Voters are turning away from the two major parties in a huge break with the trend seen in the 2019 general election campaign, when the smaller parties’ votes were squeezed. The biggest surprise is that both major parties are being hit, with Labour and the Conservatives down to their lowest share of the vote since Liz Truss was in office.”
Dylan Difford, an elections researcher, found that based on current polling, the main parties are on track for their lowest vote share since 1945. He highlighted that the elections following Brexit might have been an anomaly, masking a longer-term decline in support for the two major parties.
Growing Multi-Partyism
Difford stated, “After the Brexit polarisation seen in the last two elections allowed the smaller parties to get ‘squeezed’, this represents a return to the pre-2016 trend of growing multi-partyism among British voters. Regardless of a belief that first past the post will always push voters back to the big two, the increasing anger, frustration, and distrust voters feel towards mainstream politics is fueling this fragmentation across western democracies – and Britain is simply not immune.”
Approval Ratings
The Opinium poll also showed a significant decline in Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings, with a net rating of -40, as only 20% of respondents approved of his performance while 60% disapproved. Keir Starmer's ratings also declined, albeit less severely, to an overall -3 rating.
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