French voters are heading to the polls in the first round of high-stakes, snap parliamentary elections that could see Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) form a government for the first time in history. Polls suggest that support for the RN has strengthened, with some indicating the party could win 37% of the national vote and potentially secure an outright majority in the National Assembly.
President Emmanuel Macron called for these unexpected elections following a significant defeat of his allies in the European parliamentary elections. The outcome remains highly uncertain, with the New Popular Front (NFP), a left-wing alliance, polling at 28%, and Macron’s centrist bloc trailing at 20%.
Official campaigning for the first-round vote ended at midnight on Friday. The second round of voting is set for July 7, with much expected to change as candidates may form tactical alliances to block the far-right from gaining a majority. In recent days, candidates from the left and Macron’s camp have reminded voters of the RN’s controversial history, which includes past affiliations with extremist views.
Marine Le Pen has urged her supporters to seize this historic opportunity and vote. The RN has promised to slash immigration, cut taxes on energy, and work towards abolishing Macron’s pension reforms.
Analysts suggest a polarised parliament is the most likely outcome, potentially leading to political paralysis. If the RN wins a majority, party chief Jordan Bardella could become prime minister, resulting in a fraught cohabitation with Macron. This could pit the two leaders against each other on key issues such as France’s support for Ukraine.
Macron plans to convene a government meeting following the first-round vote to decide on further actions. Despite dissent among his allies, Macron has stood by his decision to call for these elections, hoping to force voters to confront the possibility of a far-right government.
In the lead-up to the vote, Macron has warned that France risks being plunged into “civil war” if either of his “extreme” opponents win a majority. He has insisted he will serve out his term until 2027, regardless of the election outcome.
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